Backtest Results: Real Market Data
Deterministic DP · DAMagedOpt vs. operating baseline · 1 October 2024 – 29 December 2024
+19.90%
Net value uplift vs baseline
€0,44M
Net gain (90 days)
+52.96%
Gross revenue uplift
€-734.982
Wear cost avoided
46/90
Positive uplift days
0.06
Sharpe-like consistency
Monthly Net Value: DAMagedOpt vs Baseline
Net value = revenue − wear cost. All figures in EUR.
Deterministic DP, SMARD DE real day-ahead prices, Open-Meteo inflow features
Methodology
- Price source
- SMARD DE real data (German DE-LU day-ahead)
- Test period
- 1 October 2024 – 29 December 2024 (90 days)
- Solver
- Stochastic Dynamic Programming, rolling 8h horizon
- Baseline
- baseline_peak_hours: best-efficiency turbine during top-8 price hours per UTC day; standby otherwise.
- Inflow model
- Open-Meteo meteo → ML inflow forecaster (Grande Dixence)
Backtest uses real SMARD DE-LU day-ahead prices for 1 Oct–29 Dec 2024 and compares DAMagedOpt dispatch against the operating baseline described above. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Paid Report · Instant PDF Download
What's inside the €49 report
- Dispatch methodology: Dynamic Programming model, 36h rolling horizon, SMARD DE-LU day-ahead prices
- 2024 DE-LU headline results: gross revenue uplift +19.95%, net value uplift +19.94% over Oct–Dec 2024
- Month-by-month breakdown: optimised vs. baseline net value for Oct, Nov, and Dec 2024
- Wear cost analysis: quantified avoided turbine wear cost per dispatch decision
- Inflow model: Open-Meteo meteorological features → ML inflow forecaster (Grande Dixence proxy)
- Caveats & limitations: data sources, model assumptions, and real-world applicability notes
Full methodology + results + caveats · instant PDF download · no sales call
Buy the report — €49 →Get your free uplift estimate
We model your plant with real market data and deliver a personalised estimate within 48 hours.
Get your free uplift estimateNo commitment. We analyse your turbine specs and send results within 48h.