Real Data · 90-Day Backtest
Backtest Results: Real Market Data
Deterministic DP · DAMagedOpt vs. operating baseline · 1 October 2024 – 29 December 2024
+15.26%
Net value uplift vs baseline
€5,79M
Net gain (90 days)
+12.39%
Gross revenue uplift
€208.605
Wear cost avoided
90/90
Positive uplift days
0.78
Sharpe-like consistency
Monthly Net Value: DAMagedOpt vs Baseline
Net value = revenue − wear cost. All figures in EUR.
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Deterministic DP, SMARD DE real day-ahead prices, Open-Meteo inflow features
Methodology
- Price source
- SMARD DE real data (German DE-LU day-ahead)
- Test period
- 1 October 2024 – 29 December 2024 (90 days)
- Solver
- Deterministic Dynamic Programming, rolling 8h horizon
- Baseline
- Constant max-power turbine dispatch with standby only when hard limits force it.
- Inflow model
- Open-Meteo meteo → ML inflow forecaster (Grande Dixence)
Backtest uses real SMARD DE-LU day-ahead prices for 1 Oct–29 Dec 2024 and compares DAMagedOpt dispatch against the operating baseline described above. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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